香港貨幣供應

這是香港的M1和GDP的比重：


1997 M1/GDP = 0.16
2000 M1/GDP = 0.18
2003 M1/GDP = 0.31
2005 M1/GDP = 0.30
2014 M1/GDP = 0.75

再看看M1和M3在以往的比例變化：

1997 M1/M3  = 0.07
2000 M1/M3  = 0.07
2003 M1/M3  = 0.10
2005 M1/M3  = 0.099
2009 M1/M3  = 0.14
2014 M1/M3  = 0.15

M1由2005年開始急速上升，到2014年已增加到四倍，由上述數字可以看到，M1與GDP的比重，由1997年的0.16升到2014年的0.75，最新的比重已大大超出了香港過往經濟發展的規模，在這段時候正值自由行開始湧入香港，M1的大幅增加反映了自由行的影响，但在本地消費基本層面，M1的標升並未推動通脹率大幅上升。在同一時段M3亦大幅增加，但幅度沒有M1那麼大，這顯示多出來的M1並未轉回到本地銀行體系，大有可能不是在本港流通，有理由相信增加了的M1可能已流入內地，作為內地人的交易和儲備貨幣。


最新金管局資料顯示，M1在2015年上半年的上升速度比前兩年都要快，其與本地GDP比重有持續上升趨勢，這現象正表示港元在內地人民的重要性，是越來越強，並不是一般坊間所說，港元會被人民幣邊緣化。事實上，香港利用港元自由兌換的優勢，正靜靜地成為內地人民的儲備貨幣，雖然人民幣有更高的存利息，但並未阻止港元成為中國內地的地下貨幣。


由以上論述，我們應要以一種新思維去檢視香港經濟發展，如單看本地GDP數據，會忽略了香港整體經濟的影响力，港元的流通數字，可以給大家一個更清晰的面貌。

美國通脹低企的迷思

仔細閱讀了美國最新個人消費PCE報告，檢視由2007到今年的紀錄，看到PCE index 年率在2010至2014年，通常都維持在1%以上，但在去年十二月開始，PCE index年率突然跌到0.2%及0.3%的水平，至五月仍然如此，這情况是非常特殊，以指數本身數字看，美國商品和消費物品價格似進入通缩區域，但與此同時，美個人收入正在緩慢上升中，五月的個人消費支出尤其突出，這個月的升幅是以往幾年的最高紀錄，不過PCE index 仍停在超低水平，新增加的消費支出，完全不能推高物價指數。

如果純解讀原因全是強美元和油價下跌所做成，那麼為何非能源和食品物價在以往六個月的年率，幾乎完全沒有上升。事實上，強美元和油價大幅下降，是由去年中開始，其影响應一早已全部反映在今年初的物價水平，隨着美經濟在第二季改善和購買力增加下，物價水平理應有輕微上升跡象，PCE index物價指數年率不可能仍然停留不動，很有可能最大的成因是來自美國內部。

以下是美國私人債務分佈


            學生貸款      信用卡貨款    汽車貸款       住屋貸款

2008Q1       0.58t           0.84t           0.81t         9.9t
2014Q4       1.16t           0.70t           0.96t         8.7t

t 是 trillion

從以上數字，可清晰看到，由海嘯後至今，美住屋借貸是下降了約12%，信用卡借貸亦下降了約18%，但美國學生債務在同時期急促上升，2014年尾的借貸額是2008年的兩倍，現時已穩佔私人債務的首位，比信用卡債務多出接近70%，在學生債務上升之下，整體私人債務比海嘯前高了20%。

根據美聯儲局數據，美學生平均借貸在2012年尾是24,700美元，比起2008年初上升了20%，以趨勢估計，最新平均借貸額應比2008年初上升了約30%，年齡三十歲下和三十歲至四十歲這兩個群組，各佔學生借貸各三分一，三十歲群組是一千五百萬人，三十至四十歲群組有一千一百萬人，這兩個群組佔美國總就業人口約13%。

以上情况和海嘯前是有很大分別，在海嘯前，私人債務和按揭金額是同時上升，當中有很多業主趁機在樓價上升時，加大按揭額提出現金，增加個人消費。

但近幾年情況已經改變，可以見到，海嘯後新增加的私人債務，並非來自業主，絕大部份是來自非業主，其中很大一個群組是三十歲或以下，當工資在這幾年停滯不前，平均學生債務大幅上升之下，這大批剛畢業幾年的青年人償還債務遇到很大困難，他們根本沒有餘力消費，美股票和樓價上升，對他們完全沒有任何幫助，祇是加深了這些青年人仇視富裕的上一代的想法，這是一個很大原素，導至美CPI和PCE始終升不起的成因。

以現時美工資走勢看，平均工資不大可能在未來一段時期，有能力大幅向上，學生債務升幅會遠高於工資，結果會出現是，負沉重債務的年青人人數和年齡都會繼續上升，這會嚴重窒礙個人消費，大大減慢美經濟增長。

在以上的論點，想提出美經濟結構正面對重大挑戰，沒有資產的年青人，正負起全美國最大的私人債務，他們的還款能力，端視美工資情況，若然美國不能找到新經濟動力火車頭，不難想像這一大批年青人將會繼續面對沉重的負債，導至美消費力沒有可能上升，美聯儲局的經濟增長估計肯定會落空，以此斷言，美聯儲局祇是奢言加息準備，如真要落實加息，恐怕是幾年後的事。

Huge Deposits

From the Money and Finance Report published by Census & Statistics Department, we can see a much brighter picture.

The figures tell us that the deposits have increased by almost 80% from year 2001 to 2008 - from 3400b to 6000b.

This is why we do not see much negative effects in Hong Kong during the financial crisis.
The sound fundamentals will give a firm ground for an explosive upward movement in property markets in the coming months.

Economic Fundamentals of Hong Kong

With respect to the data on the number of people (both sexes) earning above $ 30,000, the figures for the years are listed below:
1.     Year 2001 Q2         -       339,600
2.     Year 2005 Q4         -       360,600
3.     Year 2009 Q1         -       483,600

You can see that the middle income group has been increasing and the pace is at about 30% plus from the year 2005 to 2008. Please also refer to the link to Centaline: http://www.centadata.com/cci/cci.htm

The property index in year 2001 is at about 45 and the figure for early 2009 is at about 62. The increase is at around 38% and the problem of negative equity for property owners has nearly gone except for the ones whom really bought at the peak in year 1997.

From the above figures, one can easily grasp the picture that the wealth of Hong Kong middle income group has been increasing at an extraordinary fast rate. Though the median income has not changed in last few years, in fact the number of people of over $30,000 salaries per month having buying powers has been growing. This middle income group is the real engine for retail sales and service industry, like catering.

We have been misled by media and government to think that Hong Kong is not good enough. It is true that the low income group has no improvement in salaries and working conditions. This partial fact has overshadowed the real strength of our society. As members of middle income group like you and me, we are enjoying most from low services costs with the support of excess supply of low income workers. Comparing with other places in advanced countries, we pay much less in taxes, medical fees and also, other services. As a result, our disposal incomes or percentages of saving are really high. Though there are no data available, I strongly believe we can save more per head than most other places. The only drawback for us is that we have to live in tiny apartments by US and Europe standards.

Following on the above deduction, the wealth of Hong Kong people to be allocated for investment can be huge and beyond any imagination. If the opportunity comes at the right time, we will see an explosive upward surge in stock and property markets. I guess it may come in a couple of years later. Let’s see.

From the economic performance in last few years, it is considered that Hong Kong is moving in an expansion cycle starting from 2003 when SARs was happened. The last downturn and recession lasted from 1998 and ended in 2003. Then, the recovery started right after SARs. The time span of current economic expansion will depend on many factors. Judging from Hong Kong special circumstance, the low tax and high saving rate have always promised a much longer periods of expansion than contraction.

The happening of SARs in 2003 was so severe which could only be matched by the WWII. After sufferings in SARs, the economy recovery will be much stronger than people normally expect. This is a kind of human behaviour that when people recover from serious sufferings, they usually can build up a strong will and heart to face new challenges. We can see our mainland neighbours whom have been prospering at world record rates after Cultural Revolution. Hong Kong people are no exception but they do not know themselves yet.

In fact, the trend of rise in local consumption had only just started in late 2005 and the pace of moving up was disrupted by financial crisis in last year. At the moment, most people do not know the real strength of Hong Kong and the overall accumlated wealth. It is most probably due to misleading news coverage by local media which have always over-emphasied our weakness. The other main reason is that the gap between rich and poor has been much widened. We have a large proportion of working population earning just a few thousand each month. The news about them have occupied the mind of everyone. However, people do not recognise that the percentage of persons earning more than 30,000 has been also increasing. This group of high income peope is the real engine for domestic consumption propping up the local retail and property market.

Economic Models and Market Behaviour

From the happenings in last two years, more and more economists have to accept that the assets markets are irrational in nature and people have started to abandoned the use of mathematical models to research the development of future trends. In fact, the accumlated wealth of rich people in developed countries has reached a level which is beyond anyone's imagination and governments cannot hardly control. The actions and reactions of the big institutions which manage the wealth of these rich people have been working almost independently of basic economy of our world. The events in last few months have told people that even the bankers at Wall Streets were all making decisions by following herd instincts.

Simply speaking, there is too much money moving around to chase for profits. The acts of hot money flows are directed by the big fund houses and the activities do not reflect the state of general public. Give you one example is that even there was a great jump in property and stock markets in US for the years before financial crisis, the incomes for middle class had barely moved up during this period.

We are living in a world of two compartments. One is for general public who are working hard to earn living. The other is for the well off to play around with their wealth. Understanding this background, people should not cry loud to say that the property prices have gone away from fundamental economic development. 

Analysis of Property Price Movement

First of all, I have no crystal ball to tell the future. I only use my best knowledge to guess what will happen generally. My rate of sucess is slightly better than those just using instincts and feelings to make judgements.

My statement on markets of high end and user mean that the high end generally refers to new flats and user is the second hand property. For the new flats, the prices are set by developer and many mainland investors love to buy. From the past records published by Centaline, people may easily find that the success of making profit by buying into new developments since 2004 is very discouraging. Many new flats buyers lost money or have their properties prices kept on hold when the second hand properties surge ahead. The main reason is that the developers have put a premium on the new flats which have taken off the profit margin for investment purpose.

Hence, my advice to people is to avoid the new flats, especially for those at Tseung Kwan O where the supply of new flats in near future is abundant.

From the current trend, we can easily predict that the second hand properties on Hong Kong Island and Central Kowloon, say Mei Foo will enjoy the great ride of this new wave.

For seriously assessing the validity of prices, you may consider to think about the use of rental yield which measure the rent in relation to the price. The mechanism is just like P/E ration which also tells people the state of price. This simple calculation may not guide you to make fortune as it cannot forecast the future, but the figure can tell you whether the prices are within reasonable range. The general guideline is that if the rental yield is over 3% while the saving rate is close to zero, then it gives a signal to buy. When the prices jump too much and push down the yield below 2%, then you have to take care of a possible correction. From 3% to 2%, it represents the price rise of over 30% which is handsome profit for leverage mortgage. For some people, the scale of this price rise is a real fortune.

Take care! I am optismistic about the current trend of price rise but no one can tell exactly how far it will go or how long it will happen. Patience is my last word to you.