2009年9月16日 星期三

Economic Fundamentals of Hong Kong

With respect to the data on the number of people (both sexes) earning above $ 30,000, the figures for the years are listed below:
1.     Year 2001 Q2         -       339,600
2.     Year 2005 Q4         -       360,600
3.     Year 2009 Q1         -       483,600

You can see that the middle income group has been increasing and the pace is at about 30% plus from the year 2005 to 2008. Please also refer to the link to Centaline: http://www.centadata.com/cci/cci.htm

The property index in year 2001 is at about 45 and the figure for early 2009 is at about 62. The increase is at around 38% and the problem of negative equity for property owners has nearly gone except for the ones whom really bought at the peak in year 1997.
From the above figures, one can easily grasp the picture that the wealth of Hong Kong middle income group has been increasing at an extraordinary fast rate. Though the median income has not changed in last few years, in fact the number of people of over $30,000 salaries per month having buying powers has been growing. This middle income group is the real engine for retail sales and service industry, like catering.

We have been misled by media and government to think that Hong Kong is not good enough. It is true that the low income group has no improvement in salaries and working conditions. This partial fact has overshadowed the real strength of our society. As members of middle income group like you and me, we are enjoying most from low services costs with the support of excess supply of low income workers. Comparing with other places in advanced countries, we pay much less in taxes, medical fees and also, other services. As a result, our disposal incomes or percentages of saving are really high. Though there are no data available, I strongly believe we can save more per head than most other places. The only drawback for us is that we have to live in tiny apartments by US and Europe standards.

Following on the above deduction, the wealth of Hong Kong people to be allocated for investment can be huge and beyond any imagination. If the opportunity comes at the right time, we will see an explosive upward surge in stock and property markets. I guess it may come in a couple of years later. Let’s see.

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