From the economic performance in last few years, it is considered that Hong Kong is moving in an expansion cycle starting from 2003 when SARs was happened. The last downturn and recession lasted from 1998 and ended in 2003. Then, the recovery started right after SARs. The time span of current economic expansion will depend on many factors. Judging from Hong Kong special circumstance, the low tax and high saving rate have always promised a much longer periods of expansion than contraction.

The happening of SARs in 2003 was so severe which could only be matched by the WWII. After sufferings in SARs, the economy recovery will be much stronger than people normally expect. This is a kind of human behaviour that when people recover from serious sufferings, they usually can build up a strong will and heart to face new challenges. We can see our mainland neighbours whom have been prospering at world record rates after Cultural Revolution. Hong Kong people are no exception but they do not know themselves yet.

In fact, the trend of rise in local consumption had only just started in late 2005 and the pace of moving up was disrupted by financial crisis in last year. At the moment, most people do not know the real strength of Hong Kong and the overall accumlated wealth. It is most probably due to misleading news coverage by local media which have always over-emphasied our weakness. The other main reason is that the gap between rich and poor has been much widened. We have a large proportion of working population earning just a few thousand each month. The news about them have occupied the mind of everyone. However, people do not recognise that the percentage of persons earning more than 30,000 has been also increasing. This group of high income peope is the real engine for domestic consumption propping up the local retail and property market.